Anup Mulay

I'm a Principal Economist in the Applied Macroeconomic Research Division at Lietuvos Bankas. My expertise is in structural and semistructural models, and I put that expertise to work on policy.

I built LITMAS, the LIThuanian Model for Analysis of Scenarios, a large scale estimated DSGE model (jointly with Stefan Girstmair). I also built E-LITMAS, an extended version of LITMAS with a full energy sector that models fossil fuels alongside green and brown energy production. I am building (jointly with Swapnil Singh) a HANK OLG model to study how demographic change shapes monetary policy transmission within a currency union. Alongside this model building, I maintain, update and modify NMCM, the Bank's primary semistructural forecasting tool.

I use LITMAS and NMCM to run policy relevant scenarios on whatever question is most pressing at the time, from tracing the macroeconomic effects of oil price swings to evaluating fiscal measures and simulating alternative government budget paths. Most recently, we used LITMAS to quantify the macroeconomic impact of the proposed reform to the second pillar of the Lithuanian pension system, simulating opt out scenarios and their effect on GDP and inflation through 2028, in a 2025 Occasional Paper with colleagues at the Bank. With E-LITMAS, I modelled energy price shock scenarios stemming from the crisis in the Middle East, as well as broader climate and energy transition scenarios for the Baltic economies.

NMCM and LITMAS also feed into the Bank's regular forecasting rounds, providing the macroeconomic projections that frame these scenarios.

I hold a PhD in Economics from the University of Kent, where my research focused on financial frictions and their effect on measured aggregate productivity. Separately from policy work, I spend a lot of time on the computational side of macroeconomics: exploring and comparing different solution methods for structural models, decomposing total factor productivity, and tracing how frictions in credit and capital markets distort the signals policymakers rely on.

Before joining Lietuvos Bankas, I held postdoctoral and research positions at the University of Kent and interned at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). I also taught macroeconomic theory at the University of Kent and, more recently, Economic Theory II at Vilnius University.

My academic research spans the welfare costs of market power and slow firm entry, and the effect of collateral constraints on firms' capital portfolios and measured efficiency. I also study the impact of various policy measures on macroeconomic aggregates over the business cycle and over the long term.